Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Swedish pandemic measures and world economics

The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to extreme measures throughout the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has qualified this spread as a pandemic that is accelerating, thus having individuals stay home and non-essential businesses close is a mandatory process.
   The world economy has begun to slow down. Undeniably, the economy will enter a recession due to the demand and supply side-shock, but there are many opportunities as well. Reopening the economy and returning to businesses is something that still does not have an official answer.
   For instance, if a country returns to normal and abandon social distancing practices, there may be some major impact at a financial and mainly social level. Many employees will not be able to work, because they will fear to stay out of their safe home. Also, business partners will change their patterns, thus many of them will go to urgent bankruptcy, and other will expand their market share.
   Additionally, the healthcare system of the world is already overwhelmed, so it is not possible to let the virus spread become the death of many patients, just because of wages. Social distancing practice slows down the economy, but it also saves lives and helps doctors and nurses in hospitals working to capacity.
   The death toll is rising. Even officials in Sweden which is a country with relaxed measures, such as banning social gatherings of more than 50 people and initiating online classes at universities and high schools, they say that people must rethink, and be prepared for staying home. Generally, the Swedish approach relies more on calibrated precautions and isolating only the most vulnerable than on imposing a full lockdown.
   However, Sweden (10 million population) has already 7,347 confirmed cases and 506 deaths, while other countries with the same population present different critical numbers. Greece (10.5 million) has 1,755 confirmed cases and 79 deaths, Portugal (10.2 million) has 11,730 confirmed cases and 311 deaths, Hungary (9.7 million) has 817 confirmed cases and 47 deaths, and Czech Republic (10.7 million) has 4,828 confirmed cases and 80 deaths.
   We have to consider how fast a government respond to the pandemic conditions, where Greece was among the fastest states in the world, what measures are implemented, and whether people adhere to official statements, such as practice good hygiene, keep distance, avoid large gatherings, work from home, avoid all non-essential travel, avoid busy times, and stay at home. These advices are required by the Swedish government as well.
   To sum up, do not underestimate the coronavirus. As we saw in practice, less physical interaction slows the rate of new infections. This is not a test; this is not a non-essential practice. Doctors want to have a routine as well, so they do not say us to stay home just for nothing. This unprecedented economic depression changes our current situation, but we must be healthy to make our economy strong again.
Δρ. Κωνσταντίνος Μάντζαρης, Dr. Konstantinos Mantzaris, Economistmk

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