Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Is the financial crisis over?

As the pace of change accelerates globally, and as risk interconnections deepen, there are four (4) key areas that the recent report "The Global Risks Report 2018" by the World Economic Forum analyzed: a) environmental degradation, b) cybersecurity breaches, c) economic strains, and d) geopolitical tensions.

   We can see that the economic factors are far from the front line of the top ten risks in terms of likelihood and impact. In the twenty factors mentioned in the above two categories, there are only two economic risks, and two technological risks, which we could link to the economic factors, in terms of data fraud and cyberattacks.
   However, there are totally five key elements of environmental risks, and a total of four key points of societal risks in terms of likelihood and impact. If we exclude the geopolitical factors, our environmental and societal future is on risk and we have to make our choices sooner or later.
   Extreme weather events, natural disasters, failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation, man-made environmental disasters, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, are very important environmental concerns about our future. At the same time, water crises, food crises, spread of infectious diseases, and large-scale involuntary migration will have a major impact on our lives.

   During the last decade and since the start of the global financial crises of 2008, the economic risks are gradually decreasing their appearance in the top ten index, especially after 2015. This is maybe a sign for the end of the major phases of the financial crises, but it means the start of a social crises, as people need to overcome the effects of the first one.
Δρ. Κωνσταντίνος Μάντζαρης, Dr. Konstantinos Mantzaris, Economistmk

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