The geopolitical roots of the Ukraine conflict: A comprehensive analysis

The war in Ukraine, now entered its third year, has transformed the geopolitical landscape of Europe and has drawn global fear. While the international community has largely condemned Russia’s invasion, the complex historical, political, and military dynamics that led to the conflict are often under-explored. In understanding the war’s origins, it is crucial to examine the role of NATO’s enlargement and its implications for both Russian security concerns and the broader global power dynamics.

 

   The roots of Russia’s aggression ending up with a tremendous war towards Ukraine are deeply intertwined with NATO’s post-Cold War expansion, a process that Russia has consistently perceived as a direct threat to its security. Russian President has long voiced concerns about NATO’s eastward expansion, emphasizing that any potential inclusion of Ukraine would be a “red line” for Russia. His 2022 invasion, which he described as a mission to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine, reflects both his historical grievances and a deep-seated fear of encirclement by the Western alliance.

From the perspective of Russia, the US and NATO’s actions after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 have been seen as broken promises and a deliberate attempt to undermine Russian influence. This tension dates back to 1990, when Western leaders, allegedly promised Soviet President that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward” after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The perception in Russia has been that the West violated this implied understanding, expanding NATO into Eastern Europe and incorporating former Soviet republics, including the Baltics.

   NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit, where Ukraine and Georgia were promised eventual membership, further heightened these fears. The situation in Ukraine became increasingly volatile following the ousting of President in 2014. The pro-Russian leader was removed from office after months of protests against his decision to abandon a trade agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Russia. The protests, known as the Euromaidan movement, culminated in violent clashes and the deaths of dozens of demonstrators, prompting the President to flee to Russia.

   This political upheaval, which many in Russia saw as a Western-backed coup, had immediate consequences. In response to the shift in Ukraine’s political alignment, Russia swiftly annexed Crimea, a strategically vital peninsula in the Black Sea. Simultaneously, Russian-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine seized control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, sparking a war that would continue for years.

   Despite efforts by France, Germany, and Russia to broker peace through the Minsk Agreements, the conflict continued. Current Ukrainian President, who came to power in 2019, quickly condemned the Minsk process, calling it a trap that allowed Russia to solidify its control over Ukrainian territory.

   The failure to address Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s political alignment has contributed significantly to the current war. In December 2021, Russia presented a draft treaty demanding that NATO halt its expansion, particularly to Ukraine, and remove troops from Eastern Europe. However, the US and NATO refused to entertain these proposals, insisting that NATO’s “open door” policy was non-negotiable.